Found 105 search results for keyword: label/Great Graphic

Great Graphic: Emerging Market Stocks

MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance.

Great Graphic: French Premium over Germany Continues to Grow

European premiums over Germany typically increase in a rising interest rate environment. France's premium is at the most in two years. France is still set to turn back the challenge from Le Pen.

Great Graphic: Mexico and China Unit Labor Costs

Mexico has been gaining competitiveness over China before last year's depreciation of the peso. The depreciation of the peso, and other US actions can contribute to the destabilization of Mexico. An economically prosperous and stable Mexico has long...

Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid-October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit of a miscue, and the yield rose sharply to hit almost...

Great Graphic: Real Wages

This Great Graphic caught my eye. It was tweeted by Ninja Economics. Her point was about immigration. German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell...

Great Graphic: Another Look at the Reproduction Problem

In order for a society to be sustained social relations have to be reproduced. Yet now neither the middle class nor capital are able to reproduce themselves. This may be the single greatest challenge our society faces.

Great Graphic: Dollar Index Update

The Dollar Index's technical tone has deteriorated. It is corresponding to the easing of US rates and a narrowing differential. The risk is that the correction can continue in the coming days.

Great Graphic: Yen and Yuan Connection

The US dollar has rallied against both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan since the end of September. Through today, the yen has fallen 9.8% and the yuan has fallen by 3.5%. What they have in common is the rise in US interest rates relative to their...

Great Graphic: Euro-the Big Picture

Most economists are focusing on either US monetary policy or US fiscal policy. We focus on the policy mix. After the policy mix, politics is also a weigh on the euro. Our long-term call is for the euro to revisit the lows from 2000.

Great Graphic: Growth in Federal Spending

Federal spending growth under Obama is lower than under the previous four presidents. Subsequent to the chart, US federal spending has increased. It will likely increase more under the next President.

Great Graphic: Shifting Trade-Weighted Exchange Rates

The dollar's trade-weighted index is firming and a couple percentage points from the year's high set in January. The yen's trade-weighted index is at several month lows, but remains dramatically higher ear-to-date. The euro's trade-weighted index has...

Great Graphic: Sentix Shows a Shift

The risk that the eurozone implodes over the next year has risen, but is still modest. Italy has surpassed Greece as the most likely candidate. The December referendum is the second part of Renzi's political reforms.

Great Graphic: CRB Index Revisited

Interest rates and 10-year break-evens are rising. Some think the CRB Index is tracing out a head and shoulders bottom. We look for inflation in non-tradable goods' prices (think services).

Great Graphic: Italian Banks and a German Bank

DB and Italian bank stocks have been moving in tandem. They suffer from fundamentally different problems. The euro has been selling off as the bank shares rebound.

Great Graphic: Consumer Inflation: US, UK, EMU

Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising.

Great Graphic: China’s PPI and Commodities

China's PPI rose for the first time in four years. It is related to the rise in commodities. Yet there are good reasons there is not a perfect fit between China's PPI and commodity prices. US and UK CPI to be reported next week, risk is on the upside.

Great Graphic: Euro is Approaching Year-Long Uptrend

The year-long euro uptrend comes in near $1.1035, just below the August lows. The technical are fragile, but the euro is below its lower Bollinger Band. The fundamental driver seems to be the backing up of US rates, and widening premium over Germany.

Great Graphic: US-German 2-Yr Differential and the Euro

The US premium over Germany is at its widest since 2006. This is despite a small reduction in odds of a hike in December. There are many forces are work, but over time, the widening differential will likely give the dollar better traction.

Great Graphic: Growth in Premiums of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance

Upward pressure on US consumer prices is stemming from two elements. Rents and medical services. Due to the differences the composition of the basket of goods and services that are used, the core personal consumption deflator, which the Fed targets,...

Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

The relationship between the change in Us 10-year yields and the change in the S&P 500 has broken down. The 60-day correlation is negative for the first time since late Q2 2015. It is only the third such period of inverse correlation since the start of...
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